State of the Borough
State of the Borough narrative
This summary complements the State of the Borough data dashboard and highlights some of the key trends emerging in Cheshire West and Chester. All notes on the sources of data, definitions and so on are available on the dashboard.
Context
The borough of Cheshire West and Chester covers approximately 350 square miles and is the fourth largest unitary authority in the North West. The area is characterised by attractive countryside, varied landscapes and diverse settlements. This includes the historic City of Chester, industrial towns, market towns and rural hamlets. Around 361,694 people live in the borough, and over a quarter live in rural areas. The population is expected to increase by more than 10% by 2038, with the greatest increase expected in those aged 65 or above.
361,694 people lived in Cheshire West at the time of the 2021 census, with just over a quarter living in rural areas. 17.3% of residents are 0-15 years old; 21.5% are over 65; and 61.2% are between 16 and 64 years old. This is an older population than the England average.
The population is forecast to increase by more than 10% by 2038, with the greatest increase expected in those aged 65 or over.
According to the 2021 Census around 8.8% of local residents were from Black and Minority Ethnic backgrounds, an increase on the 5.5% reported in 2011 but far lower than the 26.5% England average. Polish remains by far the most frequently spoken non-English language.
The COVID-19 pandemic began to impact on the UK from the start of 2020, with a national lockdown declared at the end of March. Due to the differences in the time taken to collate and report the various data within the State of the Borough, the impact of the pandemic shows differently in different data sets. The Department for Education continues to advise caution in how educational attainment is compared over this period.
Council Plan Priorities
Per capita carbon emissions for the borough in 2020 fell to 10.2ktco2, with the largest proportion of overall emissions remaining attributable to industry use. Whilst showing a 36.65% reduction since 2010, local emissions remain more than double the national average. Across England as a whole, the greater part of emissions is accounted for by transport and household emissions.
83% of local households own at least one car or van. The impact of the pandemic and national lockdowns saw the vehicle miles travelled per 100,000 people falling from 753 miles in 2019 to 577 miles in 2020 – the first significant drop since Cheshire West and Chester was created. Whilst 2021 figures has seen mileage increase to 659 miles this remains lower than it has been over the last decade. The number of low emission vehicles owned locally increased to 1134 per 100,000 population but this remains below the national rate which is increasing faster than local numbers.
Whilst Cheshire West is an affluent borough the overall picture masks stark gaps between areas of prosperity and deprivation. The median local household income is £35,100 per year but, 17.7% of local households have an annual income of less than £20,000 compared to 17.5% nationally. Some 24,670 local people live in neighbourhoods ranked in the most deprived 10% in England and the number of local children in low-income families has increased houses from 8,322 in 2020/21, to 9,252. Whilst national male and female life expectancy have dipped slightly, with this being mirrored in local male life expectancy, local female life expectancy has risen slightly. The borough’s inequality in life expectancy at birth has reduced from 10.6 to 9.8 years for men and from 8.8 to 7.8 years for women.
More recent information shows that visits to foodbanks increased from 22,515 in 2020 and have remained high at 26,028 for 2022/23, the percentage of local pupils known to be eligible for free school meals increased from 13.3% in 2019 to 18.4% in 2022 and unemployment, which had fallen from to 2.7% in 2022, has increased to 4.4%.
Average attainment 8 scores at GCSE show that the attainment of non-disadvantaged pupils has dipped both locally and nationally (both falling to 52.8). The attainment of disadvantaged pupils has also dipped but local attainment, which has remained worse than that of disadvantaged pupils nationally over the past few years, has fallen faster meaning that gap has widened.
The largest business sectors in Cheshire West in terms of the number of businesses are professional, scientific and technical (which fell from 2,800 in 2020 to 2,660 in 2021, and 2,565 in 2022), construction (which has increased from 1,425 to 1,470) and business admin and support (which has increased from 1,205 to 1,225 then fallen back to 1,210). The sectors with the highest number of employees are health (which increased from 18,000 in 2020 to 20,000 in 2021) retail (which fell from 22,000 to 19,000) and accommodation and food (which increased from 13,000 to 16,000). The most recent 2022 figures show a drop in business births (from 1,690 to 1,425) but also an increase in business deaths (from 1,725 to 1,810). The percentage of local businesses that survive two years locally has increased slightly (from 69.8% to 71.20%) as have both the national and regional percentages which are just below local levels. The growth in Gross Value Added (GVA) in the borough from 1998-2021 (1.6%) is slightly below that of the North West (1.7%) and UK average (1.8%).
The local employment rate, which is collected by survey, increased significantly up to 2021 but has since fallen to 68.9%, below previous performance. It is now showing as worse than both England (75.9%) and the North West (74.4%). Whilst model-based unemployment has recently risen it remains well below the national average, as do unemployment benefit claimant rates. Around a third of local people continue to work part-time. Whilst commuting data from the 2021 Census needs to be considered in light of Covid lockdowns and uncertainty as to how consistently people answered the question, 36,704 people reported that they commute out of the borough for work (with Cheshire East the most popular destination), and 37,364 commuted into the borough (with Wirral the most popular source).
The impact of COVID-19 and the national pandemic response can be seen in the number of visitors to the borough. After falling from 37.4million (2019) to 20.1m (2020), it has recovered to 24.5m in 2021 and 28.7m in 2022. The economic impact increased has followed a similar trajectory and in 2022 stood at £1.99bn. Chester Zoo is historically by far the most popular visitor attraction in the borough but is not included in the most recent visitor figures released by VisitBritain. 2022 visitor figures show Delamere Forest as the most popular attraction, with the Ice Cream Farm in second place.
Data shows that the borough ‘infant mortality rate’ is similar to the national average but that the percentage of ‘low birthweight term babies’ is better.
The proportion of local children who are obese is better than the national average at both reception age (7.95% compared to 10.11%) and at year 6 (20.8% compared to 23.45%). Hospital admissions for mental health conditions in people under 18s and for self-harm in those aged 10-24 years old have been worse locally than the national average for a number of years. The reasons for this are not clear. Mental health and self-harm admissions are both more prevalent for females, locally and nationally.
Under 18s hospital admissions for alcohol-specific conditions in under 18s has fallen, remaining similar to the national average but admissions for substance misuse in 15-24 year olds saw an increase whilst remaining similar to the England average.
Hospital admissions caused by unintentional or deliberate injuries have been consistently significantly higher (worse) in the borough than the England average. The rate of children in need has also been increasing since 2020 and this continued in 2022.
Overall absence from school increased significantly in 2022, from 4.6% to 7.8% locally and 4.6% to 7.6% nationally. The local absence rate is slightly lower than the England average for special schools, the same at primary age but higher at secondary (9.5% in comparison to 9.0%). The percentage of schools rated as good or outstanding by OFSTED has increased for primary (90.7% against an England average of 90.1%) and increased for secondary schools (85% compared to an England average of 81.5%). The number of people starting in adult education at 19 has increased from 7,044 in 2021 to 8,079 in 2022. Numbers have been falling since 2017, when the figure was over 22,000.
Life expectancy in the borough has increased to 83.4 years for women (in line with the national average of 83.1) and fallen to 79.7 years for men (in line with the national average of 79.4%). Around 21,284 local people over 65 live alone.
Reported adult obesity has fallen from a high of 69.8% in 2019/20 to 65.4%, in line with the England average of 63.81%. This is an increase following a surprisingly steep fall in 2020/21. Local people are in line with England for most other healthy behaviours, except local adults being less likely to smoke, with the exception of pregnant women who were more likely to be smoking at the time of delivery than the national average.
Engagement with libraries, museums and leisure facilities which fell in 2020 has started to recover but remains below pre-pandemic levels. Engagement with archives grew to 2.4million during 2020 as their online offer was extended and whilst it fell to 1.74million in 2022 this remains above pre-pandemic levels.
The numbers of people killed or seriously injured on Cheshire West’s roads has continued to fall and is lower than the national average. In comparison to the year ending December 2021 the number of recorded crimes has fallen by 3% locally whilst the national increase has been 2%.
Of the 163,876 homes and dwellings in Cheshire West, 30.3% are rented, 31.2% are owned with a mortgage or loan and 37.1% are owned outright. 46,889 local people live alone. Median house prices fell slightly from June 2021 to June 2022 but have since increased to £247,250. Local house prices remain more than seven times local annual earnings.